5-7 years, if not I’d be dead before I was 40.
That was 1977 (hats off to Tom, btw, I am thankful that at least I didn’t have to sharpen my own needles)
But you’ve caught me in a mood, and I'm sorry but the rest of this is long.
I spent all day in a design meeting for a new vaccine facility to be built in NC. I am working on another one in Va. I am flying to San Diego tomorrow AM for a meeting on a 3rd facility in Colorado. It’s very easy for me to see why doctors would say 7 years, and then shorten it to 5 years, etc. They as a group would have absolutely no idea how hard it is to manufacture medicines in general, and specifically how hard it is to make vaccines.
Even if you had a genius actual product, perfect in every way, today, right now, it would take 3 more years for the safety data to be gathered and evaluated, there’s no guarantee that the FDA would allow you to make it, and it would take (back in the day) 4 more years to build and license a facility to make it. 7 years
The best of the best people found improvements in the data evaluations and construction methods most notably to take the best-of-the best products and actually start building the factories BEFORE actual approval… the benchmark most often referred to today is 5 years. 5 years… and with significant risk.
The folks I worked with today shortened that facility build-license-produce time. We can take that same genius idea, once the data is evaluated and the “go ahead” is granted, and start to make stuff in 2 years. So if it’s any consolation to anyone… they’ll be telling the new T1’s that the cure is a mere 3 years away limited only by safety and Phase II and III clinical trial evaluations. 3 years – best (and final so far) for 2010 and it’s only because of the lubrication of blood and tears from the engineering and construction groups and people who will never ever be remembered for their effort to do something positive, and to stop complaining, and if they are unsatisfied with something to go and do something about it.